Referendum in Crimea

So the referendum on Sunday offers Crimeans the choice of joining Russia now or later?  Sounds like the usual type of contested elections in Russia.  I can certainly see the Crimean Russia-oriented majority perceiving greater stability turning to Russia.  This reminds of a barroom talk in one of the former Russian republics back in 2008.  That summer, I talked aboutnot knowing who would win in the U.S. Presidential Election that fall.  My companion triumphantly observed that she much preferred that in her country, none of this uncertainty, "I know who will win".   But how Crimeans could think that moving closer to Russia will be good for them economically is quite strange. 

Moving to the larger issue, what had been the elephant in the room, the Russian navy base, has now been addressed in Secretary Kerry's points with his counterpart. 

But one still has to wonder whether Putin's move to take over Crimea was more from a perceived opportunity from the changes in Kiev, or more from concern that the new government was likely to walk away from the long term agreement that had guaranteed the Russian base for the next 30-40 years.  Of course the only way to have tested this would have been for the new Kiev government to have given reassurances to the Russians about their base.  And given the ferment taking place then, this wouldn't have a pragmatic chance anyway.